In the first instalment of our Diablogue with The Owl’s Post (06 June), Jill Damatac posed two pertinent questions for the future of BP: will the firm be properly punished and held accountable for their egregious record of irresponsibility and greed? Or will they, as in their past “accidents”, skate by with a relative slap on the wrist?
Here, we interrogate these questions further, asking whether the current political, social and financial rebound against BP can have any real or long-term impact on a seemingly impregnable economic powerhouse.

Source: www.timesonline.co.uk
45 days on from the explosion at BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig the devastation continues on an unprecedented scale, defined by White House Energy Advisor Carol Browner as the “worst US eco-disaster”.
As anger mounts around the world, President Obama has spoken publicly in a television interview with NBC, vehemently criticising BP’s Chief Executive Tony Hayward for his ill-advised comments that “I want my life back” and that “the environmental impact of this disaster is likely to be very, very modest”. Mr. Obama’s response: “He wouldn’t be working for me after any of those statements”. Following a similar vein, a number of media commentators have called for Mr. Hayward’s resignation.
BP’s PR machine roars into action to mitigate the reputational damage threatening the company. Their defences must be strengthened in every direction. Through online and social media, the public has engaged with this crisis to a level rarely seen before. A Facebook group dedicated to “Boycott BP” is gaining more than 30,000 subscribers each day and already boasts a membership of 350,000. An underwater webcam beams images over the internet to hundreds of thousands of viewers worldwide, depicting the broken pipe spilling oil into the sea. One Florida resident has launched a one-man campaign via YouTube to raise consumer pressure, on the premise that by boycotting the pumps customers can force down BP’s fuel prices and effect real damage to the firm’s bottom line.
Signs of investor uncertainty are also evident as BP’s shares slumped by 13 per cent last week, plummeting from the previous week’s close of 495 British pence to 430 pence on Thursday (03 June). In total, the shares have collapsed by 35 per cent over the past six weeks.
But is political criticism, consumer activism or investor lapse in confidence really going to punish BP in any meaningful way?
BP has so far been cagey about how the oil spill has affected sales, with little indication of any significant shortfall to date. Analysts have suggested that customer boycotts following events such as this are frequently mild, short-lived and symbolic at most, as convenience, habit and price offer stronger influences over consumer behaviour. It has furthermore been noted that in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, public disapproval is being stifled due to economic dependence on BP for employment and investment, next to concerns that activism may present an additional unwelcome deterrent to tourists.
While BP must pay the price of an effective solution to the spill, support clean-up operations in surrounding geographies and respond to any fine imposed by Government, it seems unlikely that such payouts will touch the extraordinary profit margins realised by the firm over many years. Take, for example, the $360 million cost to construct six sand barriers off the US state of Louisiana, to protect fragile wetlands from the spreading oil slick. Compared with BP’s cashflow of $30 billion accrued during the last four quarters alone (and difficult quarters they were too), the relative cost of mitigation seems meagre.
Meanwhile decreasing share prices may signal an overall lapse in confidence in BP corporate, but, as prices fall, trading in the stock markets doubled last week, with 80 per cent of transactions being buys. Before the oil spill, BP accounted for around nine per cent of the UK FTSE 100‘s value – the list representing the UK’s biggest firms. It is also one of relatively few stocks to pay a usually high dividend, and consequently accounts for around eight per cent of income flowing into the UK’s pension funds. Despite immediate risks to dividend payouts, with share prices predicted to bounce back to former glorious heights speculators are snapping up cut price offers at remarkable speed.
Returning to our starting point, the evidence suggests that BP may indeed rise from this disaster relatively unscathed, but for another blot on their corporate copybook which may be forgotten in the public psyche until their next blunder. The environmental effects of the Deepwater Horizon spill will persist for generations. The political reverberations may continue for years. But for BP, it seems their slapped wrist may cease to sting within a much shorter space of time.
[The title of this piece is adapted from the 1957 poem 'Not Waving but Drowning' by Stevie Smith. The poem describes a man in distress at sea, who is mistakenly thought by onlookers to be waving.]